6th November 2005, 05:43 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BJ
If you were to take the favourite of every race and back it, you would return ~90% of your money back over time. Now when you consider the tab have a takeout of 14.5%, then in a 100% market, favourites would return about 104%.
This to me is the best form of ratings available. Actual start prices versus projected prices wins hands down.
Computer ratings don't take everything into account. They simply don't know. Do they know how well the horse trained, or how the horses diet is, or that it is getting set for a big race in 2 weeks time? I can guarantee it doesn't know how the horse looks on race day.
The question is who does know this? The punter. The money.
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Hi BJ, you are spot on here.
The prepost is not as accurate as the actual starting price for strike rate.
A far greater percentage of races are won by the top jockey and trainers, this has a lot to do with it. These types are backed in heavily to come out favourite in the top 4 prepost, unless there is something else outstanding.
One only has to look at the firmers from prepost to SP and see how heavily the popular guys are backed in. This erodes the value, but lifts the strike rate.
Now if the prepost allowed for popularity rather than ratings, it would be just as accurate and a lot less variation.
As it stands Joe Public gets it right more often.
Try backing the prepost faves that blow out - there's better value but less strike rate. |