I'm starting a blackbookers thread of my picks from terrific runs at their last race (not necessarily winners), just to see how they fare and if I am right.
They get one race to prove it and get sacked unless they re qualify, as a good run may not mean anything two or three starts later.
Flaring Sun at Geelong.
Sunline's little brother, was very green and got checked badly twice in the run home. Was working home well before he got chopped out after failing to go the early pace.
Bentley Biscuit at Randwick
No surprises here, but I think he might be spelled anyway. Very impressed with the way he dominated and won easily. No value - but if he starts in a much higher class could get away with black and white figures maybe.
Becks at Flemington
Beadman rode this a treat and the horse simply outclassed the opposition. He's now won 3 from 5 starts and looks to have good potential. He won his first start by 2 1/4 lengths which usually indicates and up and comer. I especially liked the way Beadman had a bit in hand at the end and no other horse got near him over the final 200m.
Up'n'doing at Randwick.
They went hard early which really set it up for the filly, but it was a very commanding win, very strong indeed. Especially noting that she was looking around for much of the early trip, but when she stretched out she was very very impressive. Reminded me a lot of Jetball in the run, her Sire.
Barlagarney at Flemington.
This Danehill colt really warmed up well at the end stretching out to fly home.
Rogerson had trialled him twice in Sydney and brought him to Melbourne for his first start at a $200,000 race. Smacks of a very high opinion of the horse.
Considering he smashed into another horse at the jump and went sideways and came from last position to finish a solid 2ND, a big win is around the corner.
Voltdanze at Randwick
Finished the race off nicely without being a winning chance. This one might be looking for more distance, perhaps 1800 to 2000m. Perhaps even 2040m in October
Rogerson has been stepping her up in distance each run, so he must be of the same opinion. She ran a very nice race on her first attempt at a city race after being handy at the country meets.
She may not win next start but will definitely figure in the finish, if she goes over more distance, she's a strong winning chance at odds.
Our Smoking Joe
Very consistent horse who dominated the race over the final stages. He's only won 9 from 34 starts now but seems to be getting better with age. His second to Lad of The Manor proves he is a bit special. Probably not a Group 1 horse but certainly G2 to Listed. Would be looking for another strong performance in similar class next start.
Smart Maxie at Randwick
Very smart horse who had trouble getting a run in a bumping duel at the rear of the field and came home with a wet sail to be placed. Another consistent horse who runs a good race each start, always a chance and looks to be ready for yet another win.
Suitology at Flemington
Massive run to win on the line. This is a distance horse who is also quite consistent. He needs distance to be at his best and any race 2000M+ he'll be very competitive in next start.
Storm Alert at Flemington
Got pipped on the post by Suitology in the same race, but looked to have it won easily at the 100m mark. Pay to follow this horse, he's only won 2 from 11 but has now been placed 8 from 12. Freedman has a strong horse here who is knocking on the door for a win.
Cargo Cult at Flemington
Very strong win down the outside beating Shadowmaker which ran third.
This horse is all class and went to the line as stongly as Suitology. Very strong win after his second at Moonee Valley in the Waterford Mile. This could be one of Alderson's best.
Malcolm at Randwick
Pace was genuine whch set the race up for him, but he absolutely pounced on the field after having to pull wide behind a wall of horses. I did not like that he almost didn't want to go past them when he got level, I'd have to see the head on, but maybe he just hung in as the rider stopped whipping and straightened him up, then he put a length on them.
He's a very smart horse, but would not be accepting red figures about him next start. If the pace was slower and he hung in, he'd be in trouble.
A good bet at reasonable odds.