7th November 2005, 02:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
Posts: 574
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
The prepost is not as accurate as the actual starting price for strike rate.
A far greater percentage of races are won by the top jockey and trainers, this has a lot to do with it. These types are backed in heavily to come out favourite in the top 4 prepost, unless there is something else outstanding.
One only has to look at the firmers from prepost to SP and see how heavily the popular guys are backed in. This erodes the value, but lifts the strike rate.
Now if the prepost allowed for popularity rather than ratings, it would be just as accurate and a lot less variation.
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I can't agree with your last paragraph here Chrome. If popularity of jockey and trainer (assuming this corresponds in some quantifiable way to frequency of winning of jockey and trainer) is such an important factor I'm sure any rater worth his salt could allow for it easily and adjust his ratings accordingly. Maybe the prepost guys are looking for better value or have less information at the time of rating perhaps.
KV
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