7th November 2005, 03:35 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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Hi KennyVictor,
It is quantifiable in that after watching prepost prices and recording them for quite a while, 90% of Hawkes, Waterhouse, Freedman, Hayes, Beadman, etc etc horses come in to start shorter than the prepost. 10% of others come in.
These horses are usually under 10/1 though.
This is why invariably you can't make a profit, even though they have such a good strike rate. In a perfect world, one should be able to make a killing.
You might notice that some of the above are showing a profit at level stakes, but this usually comes from one outsider getting up.
I read a very interesting post on a UK forum last night, of a system where a guy had found each trainers niche and backed the runners only in those races. He is doing very very well.
I'm not suggesting it would work here, but it's definitely worth thought.
Some trainers do very well with their horses first up, some do well with 2yo's, or Group races etc etc.
He had gone back over 5 years to see each trainers training habits.
I wouldn't use it though, because each crop in the stable is new or getting older and results can vary too much.
I know a few leading trainers who have had a run of 2 years where they just could not get decent horses.
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