9th November 2005, 09:07 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Top Rank
Stats. do not bear out this hard line that beaten margin is far superior to last start placed finish.
56% of winners were beaten less than two lengths last start.
The stats are much the same for last start placegetters.
In addition 72% horses that win have been placed at least one of their last two starts.
I agree with the logic that a close up unplaced run can be superior to a well beaten placed run, but I think just saying one is far superior to the other is not backed up by history.
Good Punting
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The stats you provided dont prove a thing.
The question we need to ask is how many horses finished within 2 lengths compared to how many were placed last start.
Only once you break down the two approaches into % of winners to actual runners can one approach be declared superior.
My money is on within 2 lengths being a clearly superior method. |