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Old 14th November 2005, 12:02 PM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Duritz,

I'd sack both systems as they are almost profitless. The difference between the regarding profit is almost nil.

Working out runs of outs [or ins for that matter] is best understood by understanding the odds for various lengths of repeatability. There is no definitive' exact run of outs for a certain odds. The simple maths of the odds of a coin landing heads twice in a row is a great example in understand the odds of any number of outs [or ins] you like, happening:

The probability of the coin landing head up is 50% and that of tail up is 50%. So if we choose head up and then find that it lands head up twice in a row, this is 50% for the first toss then 50% for the second, so the cumulative odds are 50% of 50%, or 25% (4:1). For further cumulative odds just multiply the odds expected at each stage, so for 8 head up lands for 8 throws we have a probability of 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 0.39% (256:1).

Cheers.
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