Expected run of outs for 10% = 65
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''' 20% = 31

Bagman, how did you arrive at the above [what formula] ?

'Expected' [it will probably happen] just doesn't make sense. Have you worked out the odds of either of the above happening ? So why are they expected and why did you settle on 65 and 31 ? Why not more [or less]?

I think it would be a very long wait indeed for either of the above outs to ever happen. They might happen, yet so might 200 runs of outs for either 10% or even 20%. It's seems like nonsense to me to say this is the [definitive?] run of outs you can expect. Please explain, I'm mystified. Thanks.