15th November 2005, 05:38 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KennyVictor
Hi JFC,
I wonder though if Bagwhan's figures have any meaning without knowing the likely dividend we are going to win. Obviously if we have a 50% strike rate and an average dividend of $1.90 we will always end up losing our bank whatever the run of outs though we may succeed with an average divvy of $2.10.
KV
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KV,
This is one big problem I have with Bhagwan's inclinations, he still doesn't seem to understand the insanity of playing negative expectation games.
He's quite content playing Roulette Red/Black which has an expectation of -2.7%. Then he seems to delude himself with some low run-of-out estimates to justify donating money to Casinos.
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I just ran my Drawdown simulator for 1,000,000 trials @ 22% and $4.80 to contrast my results with your earlier ones.
Profits - Drawdown
$54,964 $226
$57,435 $219
$59,254 $241
Right now I'm unsure of the implications. |