![Old](images/statusicon/post_old.gif)
16th November 2005, 04:30 PM
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Yarra Valley
Posts: 241
|
|
Duritz,
my experience is that you simply can't use the longest run of outs (your LFLS) as a basis of deciding your stake. As I mentioned in the other thread, if your longest run of outs is 10, you might get 10 outs, get a $1.80 winner, and then get another 10 outs. You're now 18.2 units out of pocket, but your longest run of outs is still only 10.
If you do use the figure of 10, then your idea of only losing 25% of bank is remarkably similar to Bhagwans 3.5 figure... but I can tell you that you will very likely push the boundaries of your entire bank, not just 25% of the bank.
If you use a Maximum Drawdown figure, then you can safely bet to lose a much larger percentage of bank than your suggested 25%. IMHO, if you have a good idea of your expected MaxDD, then only banking to lose 25% of your bank is a little too conservative.
Cheers,
Chris.
|