18th November 2005, 01:57 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 23
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Thanks for the advice. I have taken some on board an amended my original rules as I was of the same belief yet wanted to let it play for a while. Comments:
Perhaps only bet on Metro events?
Yes, great idea and one that I have adopted.
The "within 4 lengths" theory is one of the most over rated around. You are better off considering a horse that finished in the first 4 last start regardless of lengths from the winner.
Perhaps, but it also a nice filter so will choose to keep it.
Ruling out apprentices means missing a lot of good value bets.
Very true but two fold, one it is a good filter and secondly an apprentice is an apprentice. I would much rather $50 on Beadman than Pearson. Experience is worth it's weight. A fortnight ago I took a risk and backed the John Hawkes trained Barricades. The jockey went hammer and tong on the thing and it was a spent force halfway down the straight. I am not looking for value but consistency.
Barrier positions are not overly important in the overall scheme of race results. People will point out that numbers 1 - 5 have the highest strike rate but there are always horses in barriers 1 - 5. There are not always horses in barrier 10+ because field sizes determine this stat.
Again, this is true but works as a great filter. This is not a concrete rule though. In an eight horse field I would have no problems taking a horse that had drawn barrier 8. In a sixteen horse field I would rule out a horse drawing barrier 10. As said above, I mainly looking for consistency rather than value. Granted I may find a $4.00 place horse but I may not.
If you want to bet 50 units, try 15 x 35 maybe. Even 20 x 30.
This was an original plan that I was going to try but then I guess I got greedy and went evens each way. Last week I changed it to $15 a win and $35 and lo and behold I backed Love and Money in Brisbane for my first win. That is the way it goes though. Had I originally started this way I would probably be doing better.
Have a look at runners listed in the newspaper market between and including $3.50 & $11.00.
I have changed to horses over $2.50 as I found I had missed a few that won at odds of between $2.50 and $3.50
I am not going to post here any more but will pop in and share my results if I am going OK. For those that post on the msn forum the link is http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRa...547415916044933
Thanks for the advice.
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