Don Scott's method as described (grotesquely) on pp188 of Winning More involves a table converting kg differences to relative chances.

Chances for kg 0..5 read 100, 80, 57, 40, 25, 14

In your example of 71, 68, 67 express the ratings as kg differences i.e. 0, 3, 4

Then convert to relative chances

100:40:25

Divide by the total 165 to get probabilities, then invert for required dividends.

    Diff Chance Prob Div 

A 71  0    100  0.61 1.65

B 68  3     40  0.24 4.13

C 67  4     25  0.15 6.60

In practice these days it's near impossible to regularly find value on offer through traditional means, so doing this might be a waste of time.



However occasional anomalies do exist. On (free) ozeform.com check Cosmic Rays which paid $23.40 on October 26. All he had to do was run a "60". He's often run much better before and after, so it doesn't say much for the professional tipsters.




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jfc
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[ This Message was edited by: jfc on 2003-02-16 10:36 ]

[ This Message was edited by: jfc on 2003-02-16 10:37 ]