
25th November 2005, 03:35 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 479
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
BJ,
What do you mean by percentage of market ? I assume you means the chance of it winning according to the odds ?
Thanks
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Basically.
The example I gave was
3 $10 horses (representing 30% of the market)
versus
a $1.2 horse and 2 others. ($1.2 represents about 85% of the market.) Add 2 $10 horses onto that and you are betting your 3 horses, but betting into a 105% market already. Guaranteed to lose.
A tab market is ~117%. Say there is 10 horses. You can take the first 8 horses in betting.
You have bet on 80% of the field.
But
Chances are you have bet to about 110% market.
I basically always convert prices to chances of winning. On average, this works fine. Although obviously you have individual horses being well over/under rated.
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