Hi Crash,

I tend to agree with you about the "thousands of bets" rule. Not a single one of my current systems has been tested over "thousands of bets". Hell, the "gem" system I outlined above was based on an observation over a couple of dozen races.

However, I must agree with Lindsay on the "profits must come from more than a handful of longshots". I wonder how many systems will appear in the not too distant future based around Summer Nation's win the other day at Ascot. I can just see them "Fitness First Up" or "First Up Franchise" will be the names. Rules will consist of
1. Must be first up from a spell
2. Must be a Metro track (midweeks acceptable)
3. Must be the only maiden in a non-maiden race.
4. Good tracks only.

Of course, a $100 winner will help any system out, and all you need to do is to devise a rule which picks it and one more and you have a system capable of sucking a lot of people in.

The problem comes when following them in real time... It might be another two years, if ever, for the next $100 winner to come along, and if it comes along at all, there could be 100 people on it and it doesn't pay $100, but more like $20, and there goes the system's profit.

Cheers,
Chris.

PS running the above rules (which I just made up thinking I was being stupid) through my database gives 447 bets, S/R of 5.6% (just 25 winners) and PROFIT of 76 units or 17.0% POT. Wow!

PPS. I'm claiming the copyright on this one :-)

PPPS. I'm calling it "First Up Foolishness"

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