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Old 4th December 2005, 09:47 PM
Percentum Percentum is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Newcastle
Posts: 1,053
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Thanks Wes
Unfortunately I find it difficult to bet race by race due to time constraints and also because I don't think I've got the temperament so what I list here are the raw mechanical figures based on flat level stakes. I'm not a staking plan man (more through ignorance than research or insight). I think the thing to do with these if you can bet race by race is to set yourself a minimum price and bet only when overs are available. I used to sit and watch my top 3 and bet top 2 at 15/1 or better and 3rd at 25/1 or better. As you know, if you look at the results panel on any Sunday, there aren't too many winners over 15/1 on any given day so there were many days when I'd sit all day for a few bets and no return. In the long run I was doing okay but it wasn't fun. This method is the most reliable mechanical thing I've come up with myself. I went through about 7000 races using my ratings method and found that profitability only started when the field size was 13+. Strike rates were slightly diminished but the profitability was there because of the better prices available in bigger, more open fields. I've spent a few years trying to make money out of the exotics but find them most frustrating and I chopped and changed. A few weeks after giving away boxing my top 4 in fields of 15+ the Doonan Dancer trifecta lobbed paying $27 000 (rated 3-1-4). Missing out on this, I did a giant dummy spit on the exotics (although I still have a go on about 20 Group and Listed races a year).
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