5th December 2005, 06:08 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Winston_Smith
Please can you justify your use of "significantly better". A 3.8 percentage point increaes in ROT and a 0.8 percentage point increase in S/R does not qualify as significant in my book. the dictionary defines significant as 1. having or likely to have a major effect; or 2. fairly large in amount or quantity. i don't think either increase qualifys defined like this and could easy be result of chance.
Thank you. Winston.
|
Those 2 samples of ~10,000 each were extracted from a database of over 1 million runs. They are far bigger than any comparable ones here, therefore more significant.
As a check I have just examined the performance of all 110,487 runners with a previous start 2nd.
The strike rate is 16.2%. That is 12.5% better than the 14.4% distant 2nds in the original sample.
I also measure excess wins and places over expected:
-W- .. -P-
56.7% 40.3% _ All prev 2nd
31.5% 25.0% _ prev 2nd > 3L
52.4% 38.3% _ prev 3rd <= 0.5L
Again there are significant differences.
|