G'day all!
Once again everyone is falling for the stats and ratings approach. All this handwringing about beaten lengths vs last start placing etc etc is a waste of time for the following reason: RACING IS NOT A SPORT. It is a business. Comparing human athletes/sportsmen to one another on recent (or not so recent) performance makes sense BUT NOT IN HORSERACING. We should not be interested in picking winners but, rather, in making money. Get that fixed in your mind and then it will all become much clearer.
Last Saturday Barbara Joseph took a horse from Canberra to Sydney for a First-Up Start. This should have immediately started alarm bells ringing. She was CLEARLY intending to win the race despite "the ratings" and the odds. At 40s SHE DID. It's a business; get that straight. Everything has a purpose (ie to make money) The previous week Diane Poideven-Lane put two "donkeys" in the same race (also Sydney) They ran 1st (at 40s) and 3rd (at 60s). how could they BOTH come good at once?? Answer; It's a business!!
On 13th Dec 2003 Ms Poideven-Lane took Terrific Taurus and Terrible Taurus to Rosehill (last race) to get 1st at 70s and 2nd at 100-1. Ratings, last start performance,race class etc etc meant (and mean) NOTHING when it comes to winning on the punt. For the trainers (and US) it is a BUSINESS. We are not in the game to get it "right" (ie rate the horses). We are in it to make money when the others get it wrong!!! When you buy a house or a share OR bet on a horse, you make extraordinary profits by "seeing" what the others have missed. Since everyone CAN see the last start results and everything else in the form guide OUR JOB is to understand what is IMPLIED in the guide. we have to understand what the trainer is up to AND what makes the majority of punters back THE WRONG HORSE.
The "wrong horse" is not "the loser"; it's the overbet horse which wins more than it's share BUT AT POOR ODDS. The "wrong horse" is almost always the obvious horse, the close up finisher who was fancied etc (yes even the "beaten fav") or the LSW now expected to do it again. OR the horse UP IN WEIGHT (ie down in class or "improving"). All too obvious and sure-fired losing propositions long-term. In the horseracing business like any other, the "product" is less important than what "management" DOES with the product!!!! That's it for now. Cheers.