Quote:
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Examining 69234 runners in 6678 races on the all weather we find that 5548 were last time out winners. Of those last time winners 1107 went on to win this race.
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This is precisely where one can go wrong with race modelling, or the information supplied can be misleading.
There are two glaring omission in these figures.
There is no research done on the form or class of those last time out winners.
At least half those runners had little or no chance of winning because of the massive class jump.
The conclusions drawn would be wrong.
Try the same statistics with top 3 API or career prizemoney and you'd see a massive jump in percentages.
Statistically, the last time out winners do win a lot of races, but are overbet in the market.
There is also no data on horses coming back from a lengthy spell, they could be last start winners also, but a great percentage could not win first up.
If one concludes they have a poor strike rate, one is not looking properly at the data.
I can get 48% win strike rate from last start winners with the correct filters compared with the 16.50% illustrated.
The author of the article has fallen into the greatest retrofitting pitfall of all time....
"But you should not look at the impact value figure in isolation. You should examine both the impact value and the ROI% figure.
A strong positive value for both of them is what you need to find as this indicates a group of horses who are winning more races than they should, and are going of at prices higher than they should."
This is the path to an empty wallet - guaranteed. He wants to use the impact values only which improve strike rate AND create profit, which is putting the cart before the horse.
The impact values should not be used on their own to "select" horses, as each horse has a different combination of factors and no two are the same, therefore the impact values, should be used to assign a rating to the horse based on combinations of POSITIVE impact ratios.
The
final rating compared to the rest of the field will determine the fair price for the horse.
The punter will seek out the value runners for the race, and obtain value or pass the race.