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Old 10th December 2005, 05:24 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winston_Smith
mr jfc.
one word answer please.
do you now concede that impact values take field size into account?
Thank you. Winston.


Winston,

I've already given you the answer. I've shown you that Impact Values take no account of field size.

Impact Values try to measure the effectiveness of a group with a certain characteristic.

But the process to determine an Impact Value ignores the field sizes of the races that group participated in.

Amazingly you suggested "% of runners" (for that group) somehow took account of field size. It doesn't.

Here is an example intended to demonstrate how Impact Values can draw the wrong conclusion.

Group A has a certain characteristic that Group B lacks.

Assume that an A and a B compete in races with field size 2.
And that 1 A and 9 ** run in races with field size 10.
There are 100 races with each of the field sizes.

Now if both A and B have the same chance of winning, then As should win 60 (=50+10) of the 200 races.

The 4 totals used to calculate the Impact Value are:

60 = A Wins
200 = Total Wins

200 = A runs
1200 = Total runs

The Impact Value is 30% / ~17%

= 1.80


This wrongly suggests that As should win 80% more than their fair share of races.

In fact both A and B have the same chance of winning, it's just As were lucky is running in a disproportionally high number of piddly races.

Winston, you claim to be very knowledgeable about Impact Values yet never once has it dawned on you that they can have a fatal flaw in disregarding field sizes.

Even after I told you about that flaw, you did not bother to check for yourself but instead clung on to your cherished belief of your self-assessment.
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