10th December 2005, 08:11 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 25
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
This is precisely where one can go wrong with race modelling, or the information supplied can be misleading.
There are two glaring omission in these figures.
There is no research done on the form or class of those last time out winners.
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mr chrome prince.
you are correct that there is serious flaw with impact value calculation. you are right that it take no account of the actual chance of winning or placing for each horse. mr jfcs figures are equally flawed as he gives 1/N chance of winning a race to every horse in the race and 3/N chance of placing for every horse in the race. he knows this which is why he refuse to answer my question on this point.
Thank you. Winston. |