Yes, favs with a high career win % have a better record.

I'll try again

Following was from over 600 races (10-16 starters only, no jumps, saturday metro in eastern states, pre-post favs from sat paper)taken a few years ago. Figures are rounded so will add up to slightly more than 100%


---------- 1st--2nd--3rd--top 3
1st fav----25% 16% 13% 54%
2nd--------16% 14% 14% 44%
3rd--------13% 13% 12% 38%
4th--------11% 11% 12% 34%
5th---------9% 11% 9% 29%
6th---------6% 8% 9% 23%
7th---------6% 8% 8% 22%
8th---------5% 8% 7% 20%
9th---------4% 3% 6% 13%
10th--------2% 4% 4% 10%
11-16th-----5% 6% 7% 18%

WIN/PLACE RATIO
1ST --- 46%
2nd --- 36%
3rd --- 34%
4th --- 32%
5th --- 29%
6th --- 26%
7th --- 27%
8th --- 25%
9th --- 31%
10th -- 20%
11-16th 28%
(Amount of times a horse wins, when it finished in top 3, ie 3 wins and 10 places (total) = 30%)

Quick summary (assumes steady %)

1st favs - win bet if win div 2.2 times greater than place div, otherwise place bet.
2-5th favs - win bet if win div is 3 times greater than place div, otherwise place bet.
6th favs - place bet, unless win div is 4.3 times greater than win div.
7-8TH FAV - place bet, unless win div is 4 times greater than place div
9th fav - unusually high win stats here - probably even out over time.
10th fav - place bet, unless win div is 5 times greater than place div.
11-16th fav - win bet!!! If 28% stat holds true, some big divs there.

NB: IF RACES WITH LESS THAN 10 STARTERS WERE INCLUDED, NO DOUBT MORE 1ST FAVS WOULD WIN - STAT WOULD BE CLOSE TO 30% AS BAGWAN INDICATED.

EI -YOU ONLY REMEMBER THE HOTPOTS GETTING ROLLED CAUSE YOU WERE BETTING AGAINST THEM. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, FAVS WIN MORE IN SMALLER FIELDS - LESS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BAD LUCK AND LESS COMPETITION - MAIN RISK IS WHERE THE FAV IS NOT AN ON PACE RUNNER - OTHERWISE THEY'RE USUALLY OK.






[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-18 11:25 ]