Barny, I have has some success over the years by picking a few to follow over the carnivals eg Melb spring & Sydney autumn, & mainly arrive at the nags to follow by keep a close eye on trials, the first couple of starts back from a spell & betting markets - obviously being in a top stable doesnt hurt.

Unless you have the time to daily trawl through racing replays & trials (which I dont) Ive always found finding horses to follow from your average racing calender is tough work & reckon there are easier ways to find a winner - dare I say it "follow the money" can be more rewarding, provided of course your not the last mug in line.