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Old 26th January 2003, 11:32 AM
xanadu xanadu is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Newcastle, NSW
Posts: 1,492
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To emphasise the merits of my often repeated investment strategy(ie. 1 unit win/ 5 units place)I will outline a practical example of my betting activity for Sat 24.1.03.
Using my previously outlined selection method, I had five qualifiers:
MR1 No. 6 Milk 3rd NTD
MR4 No. 8 Metal Reign 2nd ($1.60)NSW
MR5 No. 5 Bust Up WON($8.00);pl($2.50)
SR6 No. 6 Eaux De Vie 3rd ($1.60)NSW
SR7 No. 14Win H Win There 3rd ($6.00)NSW
These investments resulted in an outlay of 30 units for a return of 66.5 units for a POT of 121.67%...a pretty good result I am sure you would agree. Particularly, that I achieved a win ratio of 1 in 5(20%) which is about what the average punter averages over a period of time. Sure, favourite backers can achieve 30-32% of winners but find it almost impossible to win overall due to the compressed odds.
If I had backed those five selections for a win only I would have achieved the following:
5 bets
1 winner($8.00)(NSW)
POT = outlay 5; return 8...3/5x100 = 60%
..a good result but does not match my strategy.
Now, because I treat my punting seriously and seek to manage a reasonable POT each year, I try to exploit the difference in divs offered by each mainland TAB by opening accounts in each state. Due to problems, I did not have access to Unitab yesterday so I operated on NSW TAB and Supertab. Following are the results achieved by approaching punting in a more "professional" manner:
The results above, reflect NSW divs, now refer below for Supertab divs:
MR1 No.6 Milk 3rd NTD
MR4 No.8 Metal Reign 2nd $1.50
MR5 No.5 Bust Up WON $9.20w $2.90pl
SR6 No.6 Eaux De Vie 3rd $1.70
SR7 No.14Win H Win There 3rd $7.80
Return here was 78.7 units for the same 30 units outlay, representing POT of 162.33%
Therefore I have been able to obtain a further increased profit of 40.66 units from these results. I am certain if a punter can exploit the tools available to him/her and consistently achieve overlays, then they can make racing pay in the long-term( as I am currently doing). Note the strengths of my strategy....protection of capital, achieving modest returns on investment, control of capital and ongoing research to refine methods.
Another contributor in another forum asked whether there is merit in wagering in the denomination of 1 win 5 place, well, there certainly is even when place divs are somewhat compressed.
Feel free to comment and share your strategies(that doesn't mean giving up your secrets)as this is a game where you never stop learning and flexibility and listening to other punters' approaches may assist you or me in our own betting.
Cheers.
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