8th November 2014, 12:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mattio
Are you taking into account the bookmaker percentages for the open and the close? If you aren't then your data is next to useless as more often than not the price change is a reflection on the change in bookmaker percentage from say 140% at open to 115% at close as an example.
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In the month of Oct 2014 1216 races and 11666 horses. 375 races won by horses that shortened as SP-OP. Overall 2072 horses shortened, 2180 stayed the same. 2123 horses ranked better and 7297 horses stayed the same rank.
But the true equation, as Mattio has raised, is whether the horses probability increased(shortened) or decreased (drifted) in a 100% market. 9175 decreased, and 28 stayed the same.
The real question is how many really shortened ie a significant change of probability. |