I mentioned that 7 EPL teams have had congested fixtures due to cup competitions. Only Man U was eliminated. The other 6 not only advanced to the knock-out phase; but all of the 6 finished at the top of their groups. Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City advanced in the Champions League while Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham advanced in the Europa League. Of course, all 7 very tired teams ran into weekend fixture issues. Man U and Man City went through the motions for a 0-0 draw. The other five, all favourites, lost 2, drew 2 and only won once. That’s typical for congested fixtures.

Predictions for the first weeks of this season were dismal as teams struggled to get back into playing shape and learned to play without fans. I mentioned that I then compensated for some hugely unexplainable match upsets by top teams. Predictions improved. Beginning with Round 10, the system started using numbers from this season, such as the fact that there is no home advantage. There was an immediate improvement. By not considering congested fixtures, in Round 10, all three value bets cashed for a 195% profit. In Round 11, 2 of 3 value bets cashed for a 93% profit. In Round 12, all 3 value bets (for West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa) cashed for a 192% profit.

Be aware that all fixtures will be congested for Rounds 13-17.

Happy Holidays and let’s red card COVID,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 13.doc (60.5 KB, 1318 views)