25th September 2014, 11:36 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
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I disagree.
One cannot offer advice like that without knowing the further breakdown of statistics.
Firstly, Firehorse is clearly betting at an uncomfortable level.
This is disasterous and can lead to loss chasing. He has to be able to look at each race and shrug off the outcome without panic or anxiety.
Because you doubled your bank quickly, does not mean one should double the stakes, even if it's 1%, because none of us, apart from Firehorse knows the breakdown of odds that doubled his bank, and the likelihood of it repeating.
You must bet within your comfort zone, or the game is over before it starts.
Neil is correct, one needs to look at the overall picture and dissect it.
Clearly I doubt Firehorse is betting even money shots, and would hazard to guess that he's had a couple of outsiders come in. But again, that is pure guesswork. If that be the case, my advice to Firehorse is to withdraw his original bank, they can never get it back from him. Then continue as he always has done, and if his bank doubles again, then double his bet size.
Protect first, then play with "their" money.
Proportional betting only works if you are betting to overlays that you know from extensive history are overlays. And betting proportionally to price, makes no sense in the scheme of things, because "we" do not know anything about Firehorse's statistics. Maybe all his profit comes from $1.10 favourites, maybe they come from 50/1 shots, maybe eachway bets. So betting proportionally could send him bankrupt or evapourate his edge entirely depending which end of the spectrum he is.
This is not intended to be a debate between us, it is for the pure benefit of Firehorse alone.
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