4th September 2014, 01:01 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
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Been some discussion recently regarding Metro favourites versus Country and Provincial favourites on the net.
So how does it stack up?
Metro
31.63% S/R -11.44% POT
Provincial
32.21% S/R -13.59% POT
Country
31.53% S/R -12.93% POT
Doesn't seem to support the theories put forward.
In fact, it is telling that although Metro favourites don't win as often as Provincial favourites, but you lose less money by backing them. Metro favourites overall are better value than Provincial or Country favourites.
That is merely a starting point of course.
What about odds on favourites?
Metro
52.91% S/R -12.08% POT
Provincial
53.28% S/R -10.80% POT
Country
52.78% S/R -11.20% POT
What about favourites that are not odds on?
Metro
29.05% S/R -11.37% POT
Provincial
29.01% S/R -14.01% POT
Country
28.77% S/R -13.16% POT
In summary, as a generalization, odds on favourites are overbet on Metro tracks, but favourites that are not odds on are underbet in relation to Provincial or Country favourites.
There is much more you can get into such as field size and track condition, class and distance.
As always, returns can be improved by obtaining the best odds on your selections. Returns quoted are based on NSW TAB Dividends only.
RaceCensus has now been updated to 31/08/2014 and updates are being sent out tomorrow.
There's almost 5GB of data in the database covering more than 15 years data.
There's 2.279 million records and more than 218,000 races!
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