http://www.williamhillplc.com/media...bets-on-grexit/
https://www.betfair.com.au/sports/p...ort/1.117087478
Just a sideline, I think it's tomorrow, not sure when for a "result".
Quote:
Morgan Stanley gives these probabilities of what will happen in the days and weeks ahead:
Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme: 55% likelihood. In this scenario Greece gets no haircut on its debts (which the government wants), it gets its international funding but also has to implement continued austerity and economic reforms.
Greece has a “staycation”: 25% likelihood. This would mean Greece implements capital controls – strict rules that halt the outflows of money from banks – like Cyprus did during its 2013 crisis.
Greece leaves the eurozone: 20% likelihood. Without European assistance, the life support Greece’s banks are on is pulled away. It’s hard to say exactly what the risk of a Greek banking collapse is to the rest of Europe.
|
Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme:
55% likelihood.
Greece has a “staycation”:
25% likelihood.
Greece leaves the eurozone:
20% likelihood.
Lot's of "formguide" and opinions around
Quote:
|
The odds of a Grexit have been shortening across the board. Paddy Power has it priced at 6/4, while William Hill has actually stopped taking bets on the subject because “no one is interested in backing Greece to stay”. Before it closed its markets, the odds had shortened from 5/1 to 3/1.
|
I think the "bluff" here is, they are demanding Greece lowers pensions and more pay cuts so they can get a payment. To those who demand this, the lenders, they just doing business and are not really that hungry, literally. They got $squillion$.
One the other hand, the Greeks are for real in the sense that to decrease pensions and reduce wages even more, ya gonna have a really ********ed off Greek,( plural) and perhaps "Democratic" Anarchy, this
is a real possibility,( the man has gotta eat) long shot, but it can happen. Then it will have a flow on effect. Avoid at all costs.
So No, I don't think there will be a Grexit.
But I don't know what will be, this ain't happened before as far as I know.
If Keating once said, "the recession we had to have", perhaps this is one of those "had to have" things, in other words where does it financially lead to ? It's only money and numbers, the sky will not fall and the sun will rise the next day anyway.