18th May 2013, 06:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by FredTheMug
While reading through some old posts, one of the regulars mentioned that they had a good win and were done for the night.
Has anyone done any analysis to confirm whether that can be a worthwhile strategy? To me, if you believe you have a winning system, then you need as many bets as you can to average out your P&L.
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The stop at a high tries to take advantage of the law of averages. If your have had a good run early then more then likely your later bets will not be as successful in order to revert your strike rate to its mean.
My thoughts are it all depends on your strike rate. If you have a strike rate less then 80% then stopping when you hit a high is probably a good idea. On the other hand if your strike rate is around 95% (michealg has this sort of strike rate) then your giving up a lot of profit stopping at a new high each day.
Each rule suits a different situation and this one is quite good for low strikes. |