Quote:
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Originally Posted by mattio
With almost identical bets and wins the only conclusion I can draw is that this factor has no actual bearing on whether the horse will or won't win but it has a very big bearing on the price of the horse on the TAB......very interesting.
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I was intrigued by your finding and so had a small potter around the database.
WON AT TRACK
(a) the horse isn't a maiden
(b) the horse has raced at the track before
(c) >= 8 starters
Today
................ WAT ............................ NWAT
SR.............10.28% ......................... 7.87%
Div..............$8.10 ........................... $10.37
R.F. ............1.183 .......................... 0.899
Looking at the RF's the WAT has an advantage.
....... moving right along :-
WON AT DISTANCE
(a) the horse isn't a maiden
(b) the horse has raced at the distance before
(c) >= 8 starters
.................WAD .......................... NWAD
SR.............9.7% ......................... 8.25%
Div..............$8.08 ........................... $9.84
R.F. ............1.079 .......................... 0.917
....... and even further .................
WON IN WET
(a) the horse isn't a maiden
(b) the horse has raced in Slow and Heavy before
(c) >= 8 starters
.................. WIW ......................... NWIW
SR.............10.02% ......................... 7.86%
Div..............$7.90 ........................... $10.70
R.F. ............1.240 .......................... 0.910
The sample size is 1,436,167 horses in several races.
It is my opinion that the relationship between Av.Div and Relative Frequency tells the story.