Yes.
Thats why I do the study that I do.
Sometimes I get it right.
Sometimes not.
If you don't have belief in your ability , then you have nothing , and more practise is needed.
Unfortunately in Punting , like most things , the practise never ends.
But the thing is Lomaca - there are at least 2 choices.
One is work hard and hopefully get large rewards.
OR work not so hard and get small rewards.
I think with you that your wagers are what I call largish , and the small percentage rewards Profits are higher than my small wagers with my corresponding higher percentage Profits.

I could never build the courage to risk like over $100 on a single wager.
And that may or may not be a bad thing.