11th November 2014, 12:21 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 755
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by beton
I have to make some assumptions here. Firstly this is not a one off. Secondly that you have noticed a trend. Thirdly it is a significant trend. Fourthly you have only looked a small sample and alerting us.
How many samples have you looked at and how many match your observations?
Furthermore this could only be done with Betfair as the oncourse flucs are a result of human manipulation. Similarly it could not be done on tote prices as the weight of money on any horse affects all prices.
The Betfair flucs are matching of a lay bet and back bet, and is a matter of accepting what is available at the time. Each and every matched bet creates a fluc. Hence this would need to be automated as some races must generate thousands of flucs. The Cup would most likely be the benchmark, so how many flucs occur in that event?
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First and foremost, this thread is not a Gimme, no keys to the kingdom here, unless you're prepared to put in the time consuming effort of collecting data and analysing it. That'll cut out 98% of readers, sad but true. If it turns out to be successful, I certainly won't be spruiking about it, shhh!!
Just an idea based on a little logic and a spoonful of observations. The main purpose is to glean from others, more adept at excel, a formula so that I can test a large sample. Then, anyone reading this thread will have the IDEA and the TOOLS to test for themselves.
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