4yo B Horse

Galileo (IRE) - Alta Anna (FR) [By Anabaa (USA)]

14s: 3-3-3

The final horse to profile (yay) is Southern France. To recommend him: a narrow 2nd to Stradivarius (is there any other kind?) and a clear victory over Downdraft. These races were part of a Cup campaign that has extended back to April.

The first of these was the 2800m Vintage Crop Stakes, where he mixed it with some familiar candidates: Master Of Reality won, just edging out Mustajeer who beat Southern France by a length and Twilight Payment by another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8

The impressive run against Stradivarius was next, again over 2800m, in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WTEeJ2OB7U. We only see the last couple of furlongs, but the pair put a margin on the rest of the field. The British Horseracing Authority gave Southern France a 115 performance rating for this run.

He was back down to Earth with his next performance in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He was 8 lengths adrift of Defoe, with Mirage Dancer coming in 3rd, just 1.5 lengths from the winner. This was at even weights between Southern France and Mirage Dancer, as it will be in the Melbourne Cup. There is little different between the two races, save this one being 400m shorter, but he only earned himself a 104 performance rating this time out. Perhaps Stradivarius coaxed him along to greater heights in the previous race by giving him something just ahead to chase. The next time he met Stradivarius - over 2 miles this time - it didn't work out that way. There were other challengers for him to taunt and Southern France was left in their collective dust, finishing 9 lengths back this time (and 7 behind Cross Counter; though he'll have 2kg back in his favour come 3pm).

Between those two races was the 2800m Curragh Cup and it was Southern France's turn to just beat Mustajeer, but they were both 3 lengths behind Twilight Payment and Latrobe.

Next: let's shuffle them up and give Southern France a win. His first Group victory..... This time make him beat Master Of Reality. What fun! It almost seems like they're taking turns. There's very little in the way of consistency to draw from. Downdraft is new on the scene though, with Southern France beating him by 2 lengths, and Downdraft beating Master Of Reality by the same. That was the St Leger Trial Stakes, for all that's worth, but Downdraft will get a positive 2kg swing in the Cup.

Finally it was the Irish St Leger which I've written umpteen times about, given all the candidates it featured. They all finished in a clump with Southern France at the leading edge.

So how to sum that all up? How about: ¯\__/¯

Southern France seemed to be on an upward trajectory with his latter performances there, so you could put him slightly ahead on that count. Unfortunately we don't know how he travelled nor how he's handled the switch to Ciaron Maher's yard. Apparently Aiden O'Brien has been quite forthcoming with advice on his old charge so there shouldn't have been too much disruption.

He's run 3 races at greater than 2900m for one placing. Looking at the pedigree figures, his Dosage Profile is (9-2-23-12-0) with DI 0.96 and CD 0.17. This indicates that around 3000m would be good. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-10-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 18, Index 0.61 and Triads (15-21-23) implies that even longer would be fine. Altogether he may be slightly too dour to suit The Cup.

Something to be careful of: he's never won first up. Each of his wins were from backing up within 3 weeks of the previous. Basically he could finish just about anywhere in the field without it being terribly surprising. I see other candidates far more likelier to finish higher though and would think it likely he'll be somewhere between 5th and 15th.