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Old 5th January 2013, 11:06 AM
Barny Barny is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2010
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The concept is quite simple. You must have a successful system! A key feature of having a successful system is your ability to understand why it performs as it does, including both good and bad results, and accepting that luck plays it's part too. A well constructed system will consist of interactions of logical filters when combined are somewhat representative of how a trainer might go about his / her business and most importantly, an ability to cash in on punter's misconceptions.

Favourites have had a consistent Win S/R worldwide back to the year dot and even though we don't know if the favourite is going to win the next race we can take that 30% Winning S/R to the bank. There are filters that when combined form an unbelievably powerful and logical combination = these form the Win S/R, the trainers success if you like. Usually only one other filter (rarely but sometimes two) will be used to identify the value, as previously mentioned, the cashing in on punters misconceptions.

For sure I'm going to cop it from the usual poster / s who just haven't worked hard enough, but I'll give a very simple example: Sometimes you need to put in filters, sometimes you don't. A horse dropping back in distance will not usually be successful on the back of a seven day turnaround (why would trainers do that anyway?) so maybe a filter for days between runs is important here ..... A horse that's won a few races as a two year old usually will not repeat that success as a three year old, so a system based on Win S/R needs to eliminate two year olds. Most of the systems posted on here (they're a fair while ago now) are concerned with stats, and fiddling around the edges, with next to no discussion as to what would be a logical and complimentary filter and represent how a trainer might go about their business. That's a big miss as far as I'm concerned, nearly as big as missing exploiting racing myths and discussing punter's misconceptions. I'm unable to test Ratings or Newspaper polls etc, but I have to say that I'm yet to test a system published on here that shows a profit year in year out.
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