28th February 2017, 09:28 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Super Rugby Week 2
We had a good first week for head-to-head matches because 8 of my 9 favourites won. The only loser was when the Sharks could not hold their lead and lost by 2.
Week 2 has two of the most unique predictions ever. I have an equation to keep the rating adjustment from getting too big when something odd happens. Still, the perfect storm happened because the greatest adjustment happens in week 1 compounded by the Hurricanes having the maximum possible rating increase after winning 82-17 while the Rebels had the maximum possible rating drop when they lost 18-56. In week 2 they play each other. I have never seen a 55 point predicted score difference before. It’s a statistical quirk, which is why I advise being careful when betting for the first 4 weeks.
At the other extreme, the Blues are only hundredths of a point better than the Chiefs so the game is as even as it could be. There is nothing boring about Super rugby.
God luck with crazy week 2.
Ray Stefani
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