.....it usually is.

There's a guy who gives sports tips on Radiotab up here every Friday morning and this morning he mentioned how he thought he had got incredible value thanks to a mistake by the guys at TAB Sportsbet. You see, when TAB Sportsbet put out their odds yesterday for the Super12 Rugby match between the Blues and the Chiefs, they had their Margin odds around the wrong way by mistake. The Blues by over 12.5 pts should have been a short priced favourite but instead it was paying $4.50. Seeing as most people expected the Blues to thrash the Chiefs, $4.50 looked like INCREDIBLE value, so of course this guy jumped in and got a bet on before they changed it.

Well, I'm sure you can guess the rest. Not only did the Blues not win by over 12.5 pts, they didn't even win. They lost 27-20!!!

Doesn't matter if the bet loses, the fact is that it has massive positive expectation. Betting in to obvious mistakes isn't smart if you want to stay welcome though.