Hi Josh,

As I have now been punting professionally (and contracting to a leading tips/ratings provider for tips and ratings) for just under 6 months I can tell you from my personal experience that "leader bias" is a term used by people that lose and need something to blame. When the race callers (Allan Thomas in particular) refer to the backmarkers having no chance as the leaders ran the final 600m in blah blah it has nothing to do with the track, it has everything to do with the pace and the leading horses ability to run faster sectionals.

Most horses can run fast 600-400-200 splits from a slow pace (that's a no-brainer) but the real money is made knowing which horses can run strong sectionals off an even or faster tempo or more importantly - do it while leading or sitting close to the speed.

I personally use speed and sectional ratings to determine my bets and I know the natural speed of every horse I bet on and every horse it is racing against. I don't always get it right but 120 units profit at 20% POT (with very conservative proportional staking) in under 6 months tells me I am on the right track.


Cheers,

Mat.

Mattio, That's some solid advice right there.
And in my opinion, really means Class.
If one looks at the pace of a race and the pace is par or below par, it sets it up for what "looks like" a good win from a leader. If the pace is well above par it sets it up to "look like" a good win from a backmarker or those beyond mid field.
However, the nuggets are those that defy the pace and still win.

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You got it exactly CP, that is my definition of Class as well and as I was once told if you can correctly identify the class of each horse you can make all the money you want. Another 25 units profit so far this month so you can image I am quite happy with the results so far.