1) I say it's the divvy. The S/R for favourites hasn't changed since Adam was a lad, so one could assume the S/R for most of the popular methods of selecting potential winners hasn't changed either.

2) I strongly recommend anyone who hasn't read Punter57's longshot system to go and read it several times. There's some really good info there and some insights into just how the odd longshot manages to hit the line first against all odds (so to speak!). Some of the discussions emphasises the point that some horses are instantly dismissed as a chance because of poor form, when in fact there's a snifter of form, trainer placement or just plain bad luck with an unsuitable track.

3) I also recommend reading kenchar's posts, crash's posts. I'm sure there's many older posters gone because they're making money from the punt and cannot again go through the process of offering ideas for winning systems. There's enough info on this site to develop some winning systems and keep them as winning systems. Also the chat has changed dramatically from winning systems to laying/maths.

4) I firmly believe that a system needs to be logical. I disagree that a system needs only a few filters because it's got more chance of repeating. What if you're looking for a horse dropping in class?, combining an increase in weight, with a decrease in prizemoney and including the API ends up with three filters ..... but there's only one target.

5) Don't over look the fact that trainers make many mistakes before they get to know how good their horse is (most of them running around the country are useless and figuring which class they should be in is nigh on impossible, not that it would matter), but the good 'uns in the stable are targetted at a race in their right class, and if they're improvers obviously taken up a grade or two. Sometimes you can tell if the horse has potential by looking at the races the horse has previously been entered for, mebbe a Group 11 early on. Worth noting another way to lose is when a horse has run a mighty good race in town in good company and goes back to the bush as a short priced favourite and runs no-where ..... no system will tell you the horse had a gut buster of a run in town and was a flat as a sheet carters hat! Why doesn't the trainer know that?

6) You need to look where no-one else (or very few) are looking.

7) The whole racing industry is media driven, so believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.

8) There was a system discussed on here based on the pedigree of a horse to select the best one ..... in a filed of maidens. My humble apologies to the posters, Kiwi or Cosmos?, fascinating system and this poster is obviously doing well out of it!

9) I don't believe you can win with a system that relies on good form, weight advantage etc, that's where most look and they're under priced.

10) There are longshot systems that do win on paper but you need to be aware that your bet will reduce the odds thereby reducing the divvy!, you need to get set some other way that the local TAB. Who has the commitment and patience to absorb a long run of outs for the "certain" eventual winner. 0.0000000001% of us!

11) RIP Bart That's a smile for all the joy you've given us over your long reign.

Probably more of staking them incorrectly I think.
Personally I like "Kelly"

Take the "Smart Punting " thread as a example of High Strike Rate /Low Divvie.

It wins heaps year in year out.

Cheers

Be interesting to see what Paul D or Michal thoughts are.

Cheers

I thought this well thought through post deserved a good response in return but you will have to settle with mine instead.



The answer is actually that is depends. If you looking at any system targeting outside of the top 2-3 favs then yes its the price lowering. If your targeting those in the top few favs then its more then likely a expected deviation in the strike rate.



Yes there are always overlooked horses. They lose too often for most punters to follow those systems. Im not saying they are not good systems because they are probably very profitable but not many punters can handle 5 losses in a row and yet these systems will have 20+ losing streaks.



Agree. nothing wrong in backing or laying systems. Maths are the basis of any good punter and system though. Most punters can not understand the basics of the maths required to construct and test a good system. They are much better focusing on handicapping.




Yes a system needs to be logical. Fewer filters just increase the likelihood that you are not looking at a short term statistical deviation for your set of filters. There is nothing wrong with 100 filters if it finds you profitable winners.


Good handicapping points. Not my area of expertise.



Not quite right. I prefer to say you need to find the niche where the profit is. This could be in the favourites. If your looking at longshots only you are ruling out the main chances in a race just because you want to be different. Don't be different for differents sake.



Agree.



Its another angle to play the horses. There are thousands of angles that win. Its probably a good point for some people to focus if they are interested in that area.



I do it day in and day out. Good Form = winners. Winners = money if you are good enough to sift out the losers. Whats more likely to win. The horse which ran 1st last start or the one which was 40 lengths behind the winner. Race those 2 horses against each other again and the same result will happen unless the last start winner falls over. If these two horses ran again and one was $1.05 and the other $20 I still take the $1.05 every time.



Very good points. Its the problem with long shot systems. No patience.



Agree.

Punter 57 is now working for a charity in Queensland.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

Great post, UB. The part that resonates the most with me is ....

Maths are the basis of any good punter and system though. Most punters can not understand the basics of the maths required to construct and test a good system. They are much better focusing on handicapping.

From the time that I learned that winning can be achieved from applied maths I haven't looked back.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.