Let's review the whole situation.

To be fair Bert has tried to explain himself and his system to the best of his ability.
I agree that it's not fair to flame anyone just for their opinions or selection methods, I myself have been on the recieving end of this, so know what it's like.

There is one basic difference involved here. On this forum people put forward ideas for arguement, assessment and indeed criticism which is all fair. This is just a general discussion on methods etc. Some agree - some don't.

What Bert is trying to have us believe, is that we are all wrong and basic rules of probability no longer apply in his world.
He has also made outlandish claims of winning EVERY day since September 2001.
Maybe he has, I am not going to call the guy a liar without proof,however I know based on seeing his system in action, that the probability of this is about 500/1.
Sooner or later if you risk $1,000 to win $5.00, you will lose. There is no doubt about it.
And because he has no emergency stop/loss factored into his method, not only will you lose your starting bank, but any profits accrued.
Now I admit I was harsh on him in my criticism, and the guy had the brass one's to answer his critics, albeit usually skirting direct questions.
The major difference is that Bert is selling a system, that by all means cannot win in the longterm given his staking method, strike rate and average dividend. When someone is trying to get subscribers, and blatantly tells everyone that basic laws of probability do not apply, in my opinion this is misleading and could result in a less experienced gambler being put in a situation of losing his nestegg or for that matter more important things in his life.

That is my objection.

Admittedly there are far worse systems out there at a much higher pricetag. But I feel Bert has a duty of care to declare clearly the maths of the system, not tell people less experienced that he has cracked some magic system where odds and probability will not beat him in the end.

Thanks Quapi for allowing Bert's system to be scrutinised here on this forum. Any of my criticism's of Bert's system are not personal, I just feel that his system will not create a longterm profit. Hopefully it may help newcomers to learn something.

Well put Equine Investor. I certainly never meant any of my criticism to be taken personally by Bert or anyone else - if I have offended anyone I apologise. My criticism was purely directed at Berts system and the claims that it will never lose. I think I was very fair in testing the system for a day and posting my results for everyone to see. Now whether I made a mistake or not with that one bet the fact remains that the system either did make a loss that day or could have made a loss had someone else made the same decision as me.

His system is not magic - it is dependant on the same laws of chance and probability that affect all gambling systems and it will have losing days - for Bert to claim otherwise is simply misleading. (I am not saying he is intentionally trying to deceive people - he may just not understand how to do statistical and probability analysis). It is conceivable that he has gone 9 months without a losing day but it is also very possible that he could have 2 or 3 losing days in the next month - that is the nature of random events.

As Equine Investor said there are far worse systems out there but the fact remains that statistically speaking this system WILL LOSE in the long run.

Hi All
I am back for a couple of minutes
I just saw this post
**********
As Equine Investor said there are far worse systems out there but the fact remains
that statistically speaking this system WILL LOSE in the long run.
**********
How long do I have to wait before I have to say that you were right or wrong.
I think 9months of consistently winning is a pretty good run for any system whether you say it should work or not.
The fact remains I keep on winning.
several of you have had yesterdays and todays tips and both days were also profit days with actually a lot more winners than just one, but not one of you has had the decency to post the results of these days here.
Perhaps you are scared that you will get critcised by some of them here as one post said, "are you Berts mate or something"
Plus bagging someone else within two postings without knowing facts.
That is just criticism for the sake of it, perhaps a knowall with a superiority complex.

ok back to making tomorrows tips.
Carry on behind my back , you are doing well.
Only a couple of you have taken the time to look into my methods and posted at least a friendly comment.
Thank you for that
regards Bert

Dear Bert,

What Becareful was saying that using a staking plan like yours - ie loss chasing until you make your $5 is comparable to doubling up on a roulette table until you turn a loss into a profit. The odds are that you will be able to find at least one winner within 20 races. If you do - you make your $5-20 or so and you stop.

However, there will come a day when you are not able to achieve this and you will wipe out 6 months worth of profits. Most people do not want to risk losing 6 mth of profits in one day! Becareful (in theory) did on the 1st day because of a dispute over a dividend.

I may have been harsh on you and I'm sorry for that but you have not answered my questions. Given that people know your staking plan why would anyone want to pay $33 per week for selections that in most cases aren't any better than their own?

The majority of people on this forum would be able to find a winner above $4 inside of 20 bets. Most of them will find a $4 winner inside of 10 bets. Therefore they have no need for your system.

If there is anyone out there who can't find a $4 winner inside of 20 bets then maybe they should buy your system........

Bert, as I said any criticism was of your system, not personal. I wish you well as you believe you will win in the longrun.

If you have won up to this point without busting your bank, then it is pure luck. Maybe you're just a lucky guy. The whole thing is, if a system can bust your bank over 1 selection, it just doesn't stand up.

If you had not bet on that selection, as becareful didn't (and it says on your website clearly...If there is any doubt that the price will not be $4.00 - don't bet!) you would have busted too.

I did not criticise your system without fully assessing it's chances fairly. I don't even need your selections to assess it.

Why?

Because any loss chasing system without a safety stop gap - will sooner or later bust you. In reverse your system says to stop after a winner. Why are you more likely to lose after your first winner? Surely your selections are quality ones which should see you win more than one race out of 32 a day?

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 15:31 ]