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  #31  
Old 10th January 2007, 11:09 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tailwag
I just had a thought (interesting and dangerous) about what would be useful information from Betfair. Working on the averages model rather than the last price taken, it would be useful to know the number of unique bets i.e. that is the number of people who bet, not the total number of bets.

A large punter (in terms of volume) with the wrong opinion in a race can cause the sentiment in the race to be significantly altered. However by knowing the total number of unique punters who are laying as opposed to backing, you can then work out a true weighted average by 'Interest' as opposed to a straighout numeric figure.

In reality what matters is not the size of a persons bet, but whether or not they are correct (win or lose), so knowing the true level of that sentiment regarding any individual horse is paramount, but lost to us because that information is not displayed, but it is obviously known.

Do you think Betfair would ever give that sort of 'Advantage' to us - normal punters? it would make their tool very usable and significantly better than their flawed current model.

Comments?

Tailwag.



I understand that Betfair does a have a facility for indicating market action by (anonymous coded) user, but that is only available to on-course Stewards.

However Betfair's public Market Information screen does provide a good insight into movements.

If I saw a single $2,000 bet crush the price from $10 to $3 I'd probably dismiss that as the actions of an opulent fool.

But if I instead saw a number of significant bets which did not firm the price, that would be consistent with the modus operandi of an astute informed player.
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  #32  
Old 10th January 2007, 05:04 PM
tailwag tailwag is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
I understand that Betfair does a have a facility for indicating market action by (anonymous coded) user, but that is only available to on-course Stewards.

However Betfair's public Market Information screen does provide a good insight into movements.

If I saw a single $2,000 bet crush the price from $10 to $3 I'd probably dismiss that as the actions of an opulent fool.

But if I instead saw a number of significant bets which did not firm the price, that would be consistent with the modus operandi of an astute informed player.
That is my point exactly, for you to notice those types of bets, you would have to constantly monitor (100% of the time), just the bets on all runners, or on runners you were interested in, leaving you zero time to look at anything else.

Most people open several programs at once, monitor the various totes, corporate bookies, and of course Betfair, so you have to use your time wisely, especiall the closer it gets to racetime.

If the advantage tool, gave us the same type of statistical data as the stewards get, less the account numbers, we would all be better off. The advantage tool then would really be an advantage - why should the stewards be the only ones to source this significant data?

knowing it would not hurt them or anyone else, just make punters even more informed.

Tailwag
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  #33  
Old 1st February 2007, 12:51 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Thumbs down Think they busted it yesterday
Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?
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  #34  
Old 1st February 2007, 12:56 PM
tailwag tailwag is offline
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Originally Posted by AngryPixie
Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?

I think they had a scheduled upgrade yesterday, that probably coincided with your visit to them.
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  #35  
Old 1st February 2007, 01:14 PM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryPixie
Doesn't work on any of my machines today. Think they broke it doing yesterdays "update".

Anyone else or is it just me?


Not working for me also.

Try this alternate free one.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/liveodds.asp
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  #36  
Old 1st February 2007, 01:25 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Originally Posted by jfc
Not working for me also.

Try this alternate free one.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/liveodds.asp

Nice one. Thanks.
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  #37  
Old 2nd February 2007, 10:00 AM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Works today although I like the "Racing and Sports" one better.
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