Super 14 Predictions

Over 8 seasons of Super 12 and Super 14 games, the correct winning team was picked in 67% of the 627 games.

How about gambling success? Over 10 seasons of Super 12, Super 14 and Guinness Premiership rugby union betting, here are the results of using Kelly betting against top bookmakers such as TAB New Zealand, Ladbrokes (UK) and William Hill (UK).

Seasons 11
Games Evaluated 787
% Games bet 40
% Bets won 46
Profit on turnover 13
Return on invest. 39

Here's how the system works.

I have adapted a system that I have been improving over
the last 30 years after more than 20,000 predictions in a
variety of sports to making predictions for Super 14
rugby. I start with an offensive, defensive and total
rating for each team from the previous season and then
adjust that rating using season data. Each offensive
rating is adjusted, based on

Points scored by the team
Opponent defensive rating
Home advantage

Each defensive rating is adjusted depending on

Points scored against the team
Opponent offensive rating
Home advantage

Total rating depends on offensive rating minus defensive rating.

To predict score difference for the next game, I use

Weighted difference of total ratings
Home advantage

To predict the home team score I use

Score difference
Home team offensive rating
Away team defensive rating
Home advantage

To predict the away teams score I use

Score difference
Away team offensive rating
Home team defensive rating
Home advantage

To predict total score I add the home team score to
the away team score.

I also predict the probability that each team will
win, using

Score difference
Score error standard deviation
Normal distribution

I show fair decimal odds for each game. Fair decimal odds
are found by taking 1/probability. For example, if the
probability of a home with is 0.5, the fair decimal odds
are 1/0.5 or 2.0 (a bet of $1 will return $2, the original
$1 and a profit of $1). If the odds of a win are 0.25, the
fair decimal odds are 1.0/0.25 or 4.0.

The fair decimal odds can be used for money line betting.
Score difference can be used for handicap betting and for
betting on the margin of victory.

Warning

It takes about four weeks for ratings to adjust to the new players, coaches and strategies. Be very conservative when betting for the first four weeks.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani