Evening chaps. Need your help with this puzzle which has been canoodling around in my head for some time now. Ohh the pain.. THE PAIN !

1. 40 - 45% long term strike rate for picking the winner in top two picks.
2. 90% probability that top pick in today's race will lose
3. Field size is 10 to 12

What is the probability that pick 2 will win today??

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Assuming your estimations are correct.

Lets assume 45% winning chance of the top 2.
Generally I'll assume top pick wins 25% and second pick wins 20%.

If your 90% sure pick 1 can't win then it now has a 25%*0.10 chance which is 2.5% chance.

So your new chance is 55% chance for any other selection to win. 2.5% chance of your top pick winning = total chance of 57.5% chance of winning.

Your second pick now has a 100-57.5 = 42.5% chance of winning the race.

Of course these are all made up numbers as you can not be 90% sure your top pick will lose and if you did then you would look at excluding that as its no longer your top pick.

Hi LG,

not fitting the idea of being either the best or brightest, I do however have the following questions...

A- why do you believe the top pick has a 90% chance of losing? What statistical basis is there for this?

B - if the above is true then why wouldn't you simply lay that selection?

ET

So 80% sure would equate to 40% chance second pick wins. Bottom line is that the second pick is likely to be 60-70% more likely to win than average long term strike rate which is significant. Let's assume that this scenario is invisible to most punters.

More profitable to back the second pick or do we just lay the first pick?

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

without a doubt you lay the first pick. It covers winning even when the 2nd pick loses and another horse wins.

Do you do much laying My Lord?

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Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

The equivalent of putting my left hand into a right gumboot. However, having said that, I can now see the wisdom and profit in laying a horse almost everyone else thinks is going to win. How is the Ferrari coming along Speedy?

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

My wife would love a Ferrari. I have no interest in cars other than to have a comfortable and reliable one.
An old fella who used to attend G Park every week once told me that he thought I would make a very good bookie. I didn't think I would handle laying horses which i thought would win. BF allows me to lay horses of my choosing which is much more comfortable.
Jumps races in the UK are a goldmine.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.