I love stsems but in 30 odd years have never found one that I can win with. I truly believe that the only way you can win at the punt is to have your own stable and employ good money management. I used to get the inside info on how horses were going in a coutry stable lotsa years ago. As good a trainer as he was, he missed many times giving his family longshot winners. And no, he did not punt! So if he didn't think they could win, then they did, how the heck can we expect to pick 'em? He also gave out "certainties". Some won, some didn't. His tips were no better than the experts in the papers!

The following selection method is one I use to select a horse that I will follow for approx 5 runs. It is not a system for "one" bet only.

1)Horse must be 2nd, 3rd or 4th up without a win this preparation.
2)Must be 2nd, 3rd or 4th up.
If 2nd up, race must be up to 1200 metres.
If 3rd up, race must be up to 1600 metres.
If 4th up, race must be up to 2000 metres.
3)Must have won at the distance of todays race.
4)No more than 21 days since last run.
5)Win S/R should be around 20% and place S/R should be around 30%.
6)Age of horse between 3 y/o and 5 y/o inclusive, preferably a gelding.
7)Total number of starts:
3 y/o < 15
4 y/o < 25
5 y/o < 35


Another method I have found to pick a horse to follow is to find one that has been mentioned in the form guides as putting in an "incredible or huge run" or "made good late ground" etc. Sounds amateurish doesn't it?

To try to pick a winner without inside knowledge is beyond me I'm afraid.

Jockeys are supposedly the worst tipsters. A couple of racing callers have gone bankrupt.

Hi Butternut,
I have to agree with you in relation to inside info.
Many Many years ago I had an in with a major provincial stable and I used to drive all over NSW to have one bet.
The cost to me was x amount on the horse for my informant.
I have never made so much money in my life.
My best memory was a horse called Peaceful Joe ridden by the Mouse.
I drove from Sydney to Goulburn, when I got there I spoke to my informant, and He told me to put everything I had on it.
It was a distance race and he told me not to worry when the horse was last coming into the straight.
He was spot on, last on the turn hooked to the outside and won with a leg in the air.
I spread my bets with every bookie there and I have never had so much pleasure collecting.
That is one of the reasons I like to try to read a market as I reckon there is more info there than any formwork.

Cheers

Hi Butternut ,
I ran your plan through my data base & it`s not bad ,I modified some of the rules ,which made it more consistant with greater return.

Added rules
4-35 career starts,any less & the stats fell away.
Delete 20%+ Win% rule altogether.
Delete won at distance rule, because these 2 rules, caused it to miss many good paying Mules, which lowered the final profits.

Add, must have a 50%+ Plc record.(Any less & the stats fell away.)
Hcp Wt. 58.5 & less.
Must be $4-$11 pre-post market,this helped to avoid poor value Mules which ended up with a solid SR but still showed a loss in the end.
Todays distance 1000-1600M.(this distance rage worked the best)
Delete all tracks rated "Slow" this showed a low loss. (Fast,Good,Dead Heavy worked the strongest).

This was tested over the last 4 years

Thanks for sharing your method.

__________________
Cheers.

Kenchar, your last sentence. "That is one of the reasons I like to try to read a market as I reckon there is more info there than any formwork".

Yup. Current nag bookies must luv is Vaincross. I am totally convinced that mug punters (read the Butternut of old) luv taking under the odds.

Somehow we've got to get some of the mugs money?! ..... Just like the bookies do!

Kenchar, your last sentence. "That is one of the reasons I like to try to read a market as I reckon there is more info there than any formwork".

Yup. Current nag bookies must luv is Vaincross. I am totally convinced that mug punters (read the Butternut of old) luv taking under the odds.

Somehow we've got to get some of the mugs money?! ..... Just like the bookies do!

Hi Bhagwan
Was your research over all days and all venues?
Would you mind telling us the hit rate and avge div?
How many bets per day do your modified rules generate?
The fresh, young horse is an interesting concept I feel.