before villa bleds races yesterday i looked up a book that i bought a few years ago which studied numbers of days since last start.

villa bled came up well on weights but at $2.80 it also had been 35 days since last start .
in the survey of 1550 races over 1400 metres not one horse that had 35 days off had won over 1400 metres.


false favorite ????? uninformed punters or speculators buying money.
just goes to show statistics do tell a story.

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laurie

Yeah, unfortunately, I must admit I gave it a top chance. Silly me.

Certainly not complaining though because I picked up a nice trifecta and first4 in that race. It wouldn't have paid nearly as much if Villa Bled had won.

bit disappointed in the response. that was a great thread i put up there on villa bled.

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laurie

I'm sorry. Did I say something wrong???

Yes, I agree that recent runs are a definite advantage for horses racing over 1400m+ and statistics DO tell a story.

I had that race narrowed down to 2 horses that I liked they were Grandazz and Turaga unfortunately I backed Turaga and thanks to a fairly ordinary ride by Beasley it ran on hard to finish 2nd. As far as Villa Bled goes I think it is overrated personally alot of people seem to have pretty high wraps on it, The break may have had something to do with it it certainly didn't deserve to be $2.70 anyway closer to $5 would have been more believable.

Topsy out of interest was it only horses that had around that month break that hadn't won over the distance if so that sort of surprises me a little.

thanks sportz. no it was just that my second post was sent before yours got there.
thanks.

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laurie

Oh, okay. It was only 15 minutes after you started the thread, topsy. You have to give people a bit more of a chance to reply.

Do you mind posting a few more stats relating to what you were talking about???

not sure of the question. if you mean (the horse had won over the distance or not) i cant differentiate in the survey.
but the stats cover all horses. which means cross it out if it is 35 days and the race is 1400.
in this case villa bled had won over the distance.

i also back turaga they certainly leave their runs late dont they.
the horse finds it very had to win.

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laurie

I'm sorry. What I meant was, do you have comparitive figures for other lengths of time - 7 days, 14 days, 21 days, 28 days etc. And are those results you mentioned for a period of EXACTLY 35 days or for 35 days+.