Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 3rd January 2018, 12:49 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default BFSP for favs is a no go

I have been running a system that concentrates on favs and have been using BFSP and i can say that at least 75% of the time it is lower than backing the fav at the scheduled off time, sometimes it is 20% or more lower in price.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 3rd January 2018, 01:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I have been running a system that concentrates on favs and have been using BFSP and i can say that at least 75% of the time it is lower than backing the fav at the scheduled off time, sometimes it is 20% or more lower in price.


How many results ?
Over what time frame ?
What countries ?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 3rd January 2018, 01:16 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Just checked my database.

46% were lower then the price offered 10 secs before scheduled jump.
42% were higher then the price offered 10 secs before scheduled jump.
12% fell within the prices available 10 secs before the scheduled jump. So slightly higher then the back offer and slightly less then the lay offer.

Seems to be pretty random to me.

This was for AUS races only for the last 6 months.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 3rd January 2018, 01:19 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
Default

Yes, only talking Aus races, has only been a month of running this system and maybe i got a bad trot, maybe the best idea to split between the 2.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 4th January 2018, 04:09 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,424
Default

20% lower means one could lay all faves at BFSP and come out ahead, however, that's not the case with commission.
Probably need a bigger sample size and run the same scenario over different price ranges for the favourite.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 407,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 9th January 2018, 01:00 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 177
Default

Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 9th January 2018, 05:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.


Blackdog are you talking horses or greyhounds (I think I remember you posting greyhound selections). It will make a difference.

I'll get something for the horses for you.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 9th January 2018, 05:23 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Shaun or UB would you know if the BF backing price is usually higher than the TAB final div, when the TAB price is over $5?

I have a system where my top 3 selections show good profit for win when bet over $5.

Thinking of automate it on BF.


As a very rough guide 30% of the time betfair will be lower after taking into account commission. This number really depends though as the closer the odds are to $5 the closer the betfair odds will be. Betfair is great when you can find those winners in the $20+ range as you will get double or higher returns on betfair.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 9th January 2018, 07:02 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 177
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
As a very rough guide 30% of the time betfair will be lower after taking into account commission. This number really depends though as the closer the odds are to $5 the closer the betfair odds will be. Betfair is great when you can find those winners in the $20+ range as you will get double or higher returns on betfair.
Thanks UB. I'll give it a go. there is a bit of leeway either way.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 07:00 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655