Here is some commentary on favs starting under $3.00 for today.

Lets see how we go.


Dubbo R1: Beechal $2.90
Rated 99 with three other contenders above 95.
Rated clear second fav on Don Scott ratings.
Rated 2nd for the race, 5th in BL3 and 6th on career.
PrizeMoney shows step up from last race but has performed ok in similar class previously.
12 month and career looks good. Distance has 1 loss from 1 race.
Wide barrier for its running style but a good jockey.

Decision : Its at $2.90 so does it have a 30% chance of winning? More then likely this horse will either just hold on or not run a place. Do not bet.

Dubbo R3: KENNY SUCCEED $2.75
Rated 88 but only three horses rated higher.
Rated 5th on Don Scott Ratings.
Rated poorly on all ratings, BL3 and career.
Similar PrizeMOney (slight step up) and performing ok with wins and placings recently.
The Course record is good but the rest are ok at best.
Barrier is wide but jockey is ok.
Depsite all this it has the highest AES and AFS which is good.

Decision: Stay out of this race. Too many conflicting signals

Dubbo R4: RISK AND REWARD $2.10
Rated 94 and 3 horses rated 95 through to 97.
Ratings are competitive but not top rated. Very close in last BL3. Career rating is concerning. But being a young horse ratings can improve. Prepared to forgive.
Running in similar class but slight step up. Form is very good.
Barrier is concerning with it wanting to lead.
Jockey is poor with 8% strike rate.
Distance and 12 month/career stts are good.
Weight is a concern considering it tired last start at 100m shorter with less weight.

Decision : Expected to perform well but too many queries on it winning. Bet for a Place chance.

Dubbo R6: FORSEEABLE $2.60
Rated 98 but 6 horses rated above 95.
Rated 3rd on Don Scott.
Rated competitive. Again young horse only 2 ratings so it can improve.
Similar class but slight step up and performing good.
Very good barrier and jockey.
Very good career, 12 month course and distance stats.
Weight is not a concern.
Beaten a lot of these horses previously.

Decision : There is a very good chance of winning but its not a clear leading contender but should jump well and run on. I expect it to win but $2.10 is a little short. I would be happy to bet it at $2.50 or higher for the win. Otherwise bet to place.

Hobart R2: GEEGEE TRENDSETTER $2.60 or CITY OF DREAMS $2.80
City of Dreams rated slightly higher then geegee trendsetter.
geegee trendsetter higher on Don scott rating.
Other ratings suggest City of dreams has the edge but very close.
City of dreams is a beter class horse using Prizemoney as the comparison. Both looks to be performing ok but City of dreams had a bad last start due to bump.
Career, 12 month and distance stats are hard to separate.
City of Dreams has the edge with barrier, weight and jockey.

Decision: 2 clear leading contenders in this race and I give the edge to City of Dreams but only just. The other horses in the race are also chances. Stay out of this race.

Hobart R5: AMAWORD $2.70
Rated 94 and 3rd fav.
Rated 2nd with Don Scott.
Rated competitive with all ratings bt not first or clear leading rating.
Been running in similar class and non-performing. Hard to justify being fav.
Best of a bad bunch with its career, 12 month and distance stats. Fav based on distance stats alone.
Barrier is not good but jockey ok.

Decision : Best of a bad bunch. It will either win or not run a place. $2.70 is not worth a bet.

Hobart R7: GLORY BLAZE $2.80
Rated at 97 and second fav. Seven horses at or above 95.
Rated 3rd fav on Don Scott rating.
Rated competitive but lots of chances.
Similar class and competitive.
Stats look ok compared to competitors but are not great.
Barrier is good and jockey ok.

Decision : Another best of bad bunch but I expect it to at least place if not win. $2.80 is a good price for the win.

fwiw - have learnt more about the quest for finding more winners in the last 12 hours than I have done in the last 12 months and probably beyond this. Includes a get up for goodness sakes - cant sleep moment at 2am this morning to run some 'numbers' over yesterday's form. Had a woeful day on the punt yesterday but pulled in a nice winner at $3.90 on my first bet pf the day today.

Nice one UB. CHAMPION

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Coffs Harbour R1 : WESTERN ALLIANCE $2.00
Rated 97 and 3rd fav in ratings. Four rated chances.
Rated 3rd fav on Don Scott.
Rated competitive but not real high on all ratings. Concerning.
Similar class and performing ok.
Career stats, course and distance stats all good.
Good barrier but poor jockey stats. Leader so jockey not so important.

Decision: The horse is going to get to the front easily and that is a good thing in the wet. $2.00 is a bit short for the win. This horse is likely to hold a place. Bet to Place on betfair with 3 places paid.

Coffs Harbour R2: NATURAL IMAGE $2.05
Rated 98 but 3rd fav.
Rated a clear winner on don scott.
Rated top on many ratings and should be very competitive.
Class is similar and performing well.
OK career and 12 month stats but untested at this short distance.
Untested on wet ground.

Decision : Stay clear of the race. First starters plus the fav is untested on wet ground.

Coffs Harbour R4 : LOVE BATTLES $2.50
Rated 100 with a number of competitive runners.
Don Scott rated 3rd fav.
Best rated contender. Rated well due to consistent runs.
Similar class and running well.
Concerned on barrier. JOckey is major concern.
Concerned on career and distance stats.
Wet track form looks ok.

Decision: I struggle to see other horses competiting against it. One may get up to win but nothing liekly. Bet to place with its record of placings.

Euchca R2: MIG PIERRO $2.70
Rated 100 and only 2 others are competitive.
Not rated well on Don Scott. ($61)
Rated well using other ratings and top Est Rating for the race.
Similar class but did not perform well.
1 Race and lost by 6 lengths is concerning.
Good Barrier and jockey.

Decision: No basis to make a decision for this race. Stay clear.

For ease of reading and digesting later:



Euchca R2: MIG PIERRO $2.70 Decision: No basis to make a decision for this race. Stay clear.

Coffs Harbour R1 : WESTERN ALLIANCE $2.00 - Decision: The horse is going to get to the front easily and that is a good thing in the wet. $2.00 is a bit short for the win. This horse is likely to hold a place. Bet to Place on betfair with 3 places paid.

Coffs Harbour R2: NATURAL IMAGE $2.05 - Decision : Stay clear of the race. First starters plus the fav is untested on wet ground

Coffs Harbour R3: CENTRAL WITNESS $1.90 - Decision : Steer clear of this selection.

Coffs Harbour R4 : LOVE BATTLES $2.50 Decision: I struggle to see other horses competiting against it. One may get up to win but nothing liekly. Bet to place with its record of placings.

Port Lincoln R1: FLOP $1.90 - Decision : Risky with the first starters. I can't see the horse not placing though so a place bet is worthwhile.

Hobart R1: THOSE RED COLOURS $1.70 - Decision: Likely to Win. Concerning factors in there so would only bet for a place.

Hobart R2: GEEGEE TRENDSETTER $2.60 or CITY OF DREAMS $2.80 : Decision: 2 clear leading contenders in this race and I give the edge to City of Dreams but only just. The other horses in the race are also chances. Stay out of this race.

Hobart R4: BANCA BOY $1.65 - Decision : Has a good chance at winning but too many reasons to not consider.

Hobart R5: AMAWORD $2.70 Decision : Best of a bad bunch. It will either win or not run a place. $2.70 is not worth a bet.

Hobart R7: GLORY BLAZE $2.80 - Decision : Another best of bad bunch but I expect it to at least place if not win. $2.80 is a good price for the win.

Dubbo R1: Beechal $2.90 - Decision : Its at $2.90 so does it have a 30% chance of winning? More then likely this horse will either just hold on or not run a place. Do not bet.

Dubbo R3: KENNY SUCCEED $2.75 Decision: Stay out of this race. Too many conflicting signals

Dubbo R4: RISK AND REWARD $2.10 Decision : Expected to perform well but too many queries on it winning. Bet for a Place chance.

Dubbo R6: FORSEEABLE $2.60 Decision : There is a very good chance of winning but its not a clear leading contender but should jump well and run on. I expect it to win but $2.10 is a little short. I would be happy to bet it at $2.50 or higher for the win. Otherwise bet to place.