"Top colt Bel Esprit may back up again over 1400m at Caulfield on Sunday despite his narrow defeat in the 1200m Manikato Stakes last Saturday.

Trainer John Symons says he will nominate Bel Esprit for the $3511,000 Group 1 Dubai Racing Club Cup and the Group 3 Guineas Prelude, worth $200,750.

He said Bel Esprit had pulled up well from Saturday and he will discuss the situation with owners before confirming a start in one of the event. His preference was for the Dubai Cup.

Symons said that he would recommend that Scott Seamer retained the mount despite criticism from some quarters that he “went too early” when beaten into second place in the Manikato. Symons said that Seamer, who was having his first race ride on Bel Esprit, may not have realised how fast the horse was travelling, and would learn from the experience."

That news comes from Ozeform.
I think John Symons is being unrealistic if he expects Bel Esprit to handle 1400m when the 1200m took such a toll. Yes Seamer may have gone a shade early in the race, but even Richard Freedman said Bel Esprit would be a bad bet at 1400m.

What does everyone else think ?

I just thought that the last 100 - 150m of the run the horse definitely had the staggers to the point of being a spent force. If I were the trainer I'd be looking for another 1200m or even shorter race, but maybe there is nothing that short available worth the prizemoney without sacrificing a huge weight handicap.

__________________
Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.

Hi EI,

I tend to agree that Bel Esprit would struggle against the "very best" G1 horses at 1400m.

According to my pace & speed ratings his performance in the Manikato was 1 length below his previous two wins. In saying that it was a group 1 standard run in every sense of the word. After a dubious ride he was narrowly beaten by one of the best sprinters in the country and beat another one of the best home. The track was a little fast on the day but that taken into account they still ran great time.

In respect to his ability over 1200m I'm not concerned he wobbled over the last bit, he had used his available energy well before the last 100m and was entitled to weaken.
The reason he faded noticably was due to the fact that Seamer did go a bit early. His sectional between the 400 and 200m was apparently the fastest ever run at Mooney Valley. If Seamer holds him up a bit more and reels off that section from say the 300m to 100m he doesn't show any signs of weakening and probably wins. The critical point is that he still covered the 1200m is a speed very few horses are capable of.

In my eyes he is a top quality G1 horse even over 1200m.

However the pace in the Manikato was only average so he certainly wasn't used up in the first 600m....he had as much energy as he would have wished for in the final 600m of that race and used every ounce of it to run the race he did. That being the case it's hard to see him maintaining that performance over an extra 200m. He will certainly still be able to run well well above average, but I don't believe up to the top G1 level against older horses.

Alot will depend on which race he contests this week and how the field lines up. That aside he must be consider him some sort of risk this week over 1400m, especially after such a gut busting effort in the Manikato.

In my opinion it's another racing theory that doesn't hold. Over the years there have been many horses who lead over a certain distance and are beaten, but backup over a longer distance, lead and win, or often sit off the pace & finish over the top of them. I reckon he'd get a mile. Remember Mahogany?, and the distance may be the reason Dandy Kid was such a ridiculous price on Saturday.

The other factor to consider is that the horse is backing up after a week and a hard run, trying to get the extra 200m - a very big ask.

"Damien Oliver will ride Bel Esprit in Sunday’s Dubai Cup over 1400m at Caulfield.

The decisions on the jockey and the race were made after a conference between trainer John Symons and connections today. The other alternative race being considered was the Caulfield Guineas Prelude.

Oliver’s manager Bruce Clark said that Oliver was able to get a release from the Lee Freedman trained Chong Tong in the race to get the mount on the top colt, who will carry 53kg.

Chong Tong, with 56kg, will now be ridden by Patrick Payne.

Oliver replaced Scott Seamer who came under fire from some quarters for his ride on Bel Esprit when second in the Manikato Stakes last weekend."

Will be interesting to see the run of Chong Tong!
:wink:

This is a 1000m horse and a good bet at this distance. 1400m and its the toss of a coin, only bet if 5 to 1 and over.

I agree to some extent glenton.

1000m to 1200m GREAT.
1300m OK.
1400m definite query.

Unfortunately I don't think that we'll get anywhere near 5/1. More like 3/1 maximum.
Will be content to watch a bolter salute and Bel Esprit maybe manage a place.

one simple question you have over looked. why would he enter it in a race with an increase in distance if he didnt think it had a chance? why waste your time then. i think bel espirit will make a fool out of you in its next run.

Tennessee,

1. I am NOT always right.

2. Prizemoney for 2nd 3rd and even 4th is still worth chasing.

3. Many trainers enter horses over extra distance hoping their horses will prove to be middle distance contenders, testing under tough competition is the only real guide as trackwork form rarely holds up over extra distances.

4. I am not saying Bel Esprit is no chance, I just think that the odds will be far too short for the true odds of coming in 1st...especially with Oliver now taking the ride AND looking at the classy opposition in this race.

I will be betting a "boil over" here!

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-18 18:06 ]

Bel Esprit won't run 1400 downhill.

I think it is a case of inexperienced owners and trainers in a huff over the Manikato and looking to heal the wounds as quickly as possible.

If it were mine I'd freshen him up for the Moir Stakes on Cox Plate day then come back for the sprinters triple crown in the autumn without the handicapper having a chance to have too much of a go at him.