Rosehill Race 6
1400m 3YO & up

NO.11 ZABARRA

Beaten narrowly over this distance here two weeks ago. A little disappointing as favourite in his last three contests, but still learning and should prove to be a lot better suited now with that experience. This will be 7th career run.

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Whatever happens, be happy.

Well done OneBet, keep em coming.

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All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-06-29 15:21 ]

Well Done!

One Bet - One Win

Nobody can ask for more than that.

:wink:

Hi Sandgroper, Hi E.I.

I appreciate the supportive comments.

I see a couple of our members are recording "publicly" their progressive forum tipping results, so I'll follow suit and post mine. I'll update it once a month or so.

Since 17/5/2002:

13 Tips
6 Wins (46%)
Return (per $1 win) $19.40
Profit (on turnover) 49%

The return is based on plain old SuperTAB dividends. I'm not a volume punter (clearly) and I'm not a value punter. I'm a "restraint" punter, I suppose. My "edge" (may it continue) is created by all the bets I DON'T have!

PS: I do use a staking plan (unchanged for over 4 years) and it does increase my POT. It's a conservative "closed progression" plan and my largest bet is no more than double my base bet.

__________________
Whatever happens, be happy.

That's fantastic OneBet. Now you average two bets per week. I'm guessing wednesday/saturday.(or other metro meetings).
If you can get that sort of return you certainly don't need to back anymore races than that.
I'd be curious as to your longerterm results, are they similar to what you posted since 17th May?

Anyhow well done!

Congratulations onebet-can you explain what a closed progressive staking plan means?

E.I.

My longer term results are not as good in either strike rate or POT, so my forum tipping has exceeded my accustomed levels. Since I've been keeping records of every bet made, this has been the overall outcome:

32% Win Strike
16% POT (If I bet level stakes)

The Vig,
A closed progression is basically a sequence of bets contained to a maximum length, usually based on experienced overall strike rate.

Betting to a pre-determined sequence of:
2.2.2.3.3.3.4.4.4.STOP
is a simple example of a closed progression. A profit experienced within the sequence immediately ends it, or a total run of losses is closed out by reaching the STOP LOSS point. (Then a new sequence would commence).

It has to have a logical connection, of course, to the statistical make-up of your own betting history. I think that's a most important point.

My progressions are based on the OPPOSITE of loss-chasing and are determined by a previous "block" of results, not just on one individual outcome.

__________________
Whatever happens, be happy.