Just had a look at the early market for this.

Top 5 are:
Kounthekash - 3.8
Royal Lakes - 4.8
Douro Valley - 6
Storm Attack - 6.5
Inspire - 10

Kounthekash looks the one doesn;t it? I mean there is pretty weak form in the race. Do you reckon the 3.8 will stand up on the day as i was thinking of taking it now.

Cheers,
Matt

I reckon ZACIELO at $18 is a good roughie, i do agree Kounthekash looks better than these, $3.80 looks about right.

I'm hoping for $3.50 - $4.00 Kounthekash with IAS, it does look well placed.


Kounthekash....$3.50
Zedimbi...........$5.00
Fine Omens......$7.00
Zacielo...........$11.00

Some value there. I'll take on Charnwood Green with 59.5kg, just think there are easier races for it although it rates well. Same with Royal Lakes, its enjoyed the wet tracks & if today is a dryish dead, I think it may be poor value here.

Yeh, i thought Kount, Zedimbi and Zacielo.

Perhaps you could think about including Storm Attack in your thoughts somewhere. He absolutely LOVES this track. 5 starts here for 4 wins and a 2nd. The 2nd was in this race last year behind a handy little nag called Lad Of The Manor, and he won this race the year before that.

For what it's worth, here are my top 5 ratings:

2 KOUNTHEKASH (62.5) $3.50
11 STORM ATTACK (62.0) $4.10
9 ROYAL LAKES (60.5) $7.00
10 DOURO VALLEY (60.5) $7.00
7 LIFE'S A BOUNTY (59.0) $10.60

Could not agree more about Storm Attack. I've rated the race, using ******************** figs, here's what I've come up with:

price name
$3.7 STORM ATTACK
$8.7 FINE OMENS
$10.3 POLYESTER BOY
$11.6 CHARNWOOD GREEN
$12.2 INSPIRE
$17.0 FUTURE ANALYSIS
$17.6 KOUNTHEKASH
$17.8 ZEDIMBI


Storm Attack rated 109 last start. His best is 113 in this race last year, with 57 kgs behind the Lad, as Sportz said. His 109 is 2 lengths below his 113. Given he loves Ballarat, has the perfect draw, is no doubt set for this and has Nick Ryan, if he does 113 he wins. End of story. They do not beat him if he does his 113. I'll be backing him and him only.

On Kounthekash:

Nice horse, strong, however is badly in at 57. In his 3 wins last year he rated 112 at Sandown in a class 6 with 57 (same weight as today, this is better than a class 6), then 112 again at Caulfield in an open on the limit with 52, then 113 at Mornington with 54 in the Mornington Cup. Mornington Cup a better race than this, but not by a great deal. Think 57 is a lot, even if it is only a 53 limit.

Not saying can't win, certainly can because 113 is good enough to win with 57, but only just. If anything goes wrong in the run he won't win though, guaranteed. He has the barrier and jockey to ensure that doesn't happen but again, with 57 kgs he'll need everything to happen right. Happy to take him on at that price.

Royal Lakes $6.50 into $4.20!

Biggest win of his life so far, didn't want a metre more though!

Had an expected peak of 114 on the ratings, I only gave it 109 because of the 26 days off and because I'm an idiot. Certainly looks like it went it's 114. Aah well...

Hmmm, not a bad first4 there in my 5 rated runners. I had these 5 horses rated quite a way in front of the rest. It's great when something actually works out.