The American Football season starts this week with alot of teams looking as though they are a big show. Here are my %chance ratings and comments for each teams chance of winning the Superbowl.

Indianapolis 13% - lost all 5 preseason games but have the best offence in the competition. Unfortunately they have no defence and that is what is needed to win the Superbowl.

New England 11% - Won 3 of the last 4 superbowls and have the best coach in the league. They have lost their offensive and defensive coordinators along with a couple of players. A great team but will be challenged this year.

Philadelphia 11% - Knocking on the door in recent years but keep getting knocked out in the NFC championship game. Have a good coach and quarter back but Tyrell Owens is the key. If he spits the dummy they are no good things whereas if he has a blinder of a year they are a chance.

Carolina 6% - Made the Superbowl final 2 years ago and just went down. Have a good defence and have picked up some good players. Finished year off well last season after suffering major injuries. Big show odds.

Atlanta 6% - Have the best rushing quarterback in the competition and have a well balanced team and good rookie coach. With the NFC not as strong as the AFC they are a good chance to get to the Superbowl.

Baltimore 5% - Dissapointing last year with their number 1 ranked defence. Their offence does not score enough but on paper they look like a well balanced side. Would need to improve but are a good chance.

Pittsburgh 5% - Big improver last year and their defence and quarterback are hot. Have lost a few players but will be better off with last years playoff experience. Good chance but are drawn in the tough AFC division.

Minnesota 5% - Have a great offence but have tried hard to improve their defence in the off season. Lost Randy Moss but have a good QB and always score alot. One of the better chances in the NFC.

New York Jets 5% - Big improver last year and were unlucky not to go further in the playoffs. Have worked hard on improving their defence and their QB is getting better. A big show this year.

Kansas City 3% - No defence

San Diego 3% - Not for me

Buffalo 3% - Expect a good year

Denver 2% - Undefeated preseason but dont like

Seattle 2% - Not with their coach

St Louis 2% - Terrible defence

Jacksonville 2% - Coach is a moron

Dallas 2% - Great coach and with new QB might go OK

Detroit 2% - Smart coach and big impovers this year i fancy

Cincinatti 2% - They are a good smokie at odds

Washington 1% - With an offence they would be good

Oakland 1% - Think they will have a good year

Green Bay 1% - QB has past his better days

New York Giants 1% - Dont rate them

Arizona 1% - Expect a good year from them

New Orleans 1% - Not a bad side but wont win the SB

Tampa Bay <1% - Not expected to have a good season

Houston <1% - A few years off being decent

Miami <1% - Will improve over next few years

Chicago <1% - Not the worst side in it

Tennessee <1% - Lost the plot in recent years

San Francisco <1% - Hopeless

Cleeveland <1% - Rebuilding a competitive side

I've got the top 4 being:
Indianapolis, Carolina, New England, Philadelphia
(not necessarily in that order)

And a roughie:
Detroit

What do you think of those, ATC?

I'm guessing ATC would be alright with this because that is more or less exactly what he said

They are my top 4 in ratings Sportz.
Even though Indy have been rated top I would be wary of their defence which is hopeless. If you look at history no superbowl winner has had a bad defence. I think that they are under the odds. New England are well coached and have the best game plan of any side. With the loss of coaching staff and players I think they will come back to the field a little. I rate them highly but would want better odds than currently available. Philadelphia will no doubt be up there again but will have some stiff competition in the NFC this year. They have a great team but TO needs to fire for them to win it. I think 6/1 is under the odds. Carolina are a HUGE chance. I have secured 25/1 about them winning and i still think the 16/1 or so on offer is great value. They have a very good coach, a great defence and have been in the superbowl recently. They were the form side in the latter half of last year after a horror run with injuries. Think they will win their division. As for Detroit i really rate them well. Steve Mariucchi is a good coach and they had a fair year last season. I expect them to win half of their games.

The teams I think represent good value at odds are -

Carolina, Minnesota, Baltimore, New York Jets, Buffalo

Small outside chances that are good value include -

Dallas, Detroit,Cincinatti,Oakland, Arizona


Good Luck with your bets

Cheers
ATC

Ok, the first week of the NFL is pretty much pointless betting on. With no REAL form guide to go on it is extremely hard to pick any certanties (the pre-season is useless) With that being said my two picks of the week are as following.

Philadelphia Eagles win $1.85 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers -7 $1.91 vs. New Orleans Saints


* Prices from Centrebet
* Home teams in bold

Hey there Assume, Why do you have to bust on my SF 49'ers as "hopeless" yet Cleveland is "rebuilding"?! LOL The Niners are brutal now and were when I was a kid growing up in the 70's. I've always been a fan and caught some flack then but also caught the glory years of Joe Montana--and with Notre Dame Fightin' Irish!!!! I agree with everyones picks but it is pretty obvious how it's gonna play out this year. Throw out the pre season like you said! Also, the Eagles did get to the big game last year and actually covered on a back door cover near the end. They keep inching their way to the title and if QB Donovan McNabb had played better they might have won, so don't discount them. TO has caused alot of dissension this summer, but it will straighten itself out when they start winning, it did in SF when he was acting up, but he did ultimately dismantle the team(idiot). Check out the thread about Pro Sports Betting for my views on this season if you want.

Hi "gridiron" fans


Glad to see a thread started on the NFL. Those of you who read the tennis threads will recall that my situations were based on NFL. Unfortunatly my situations usually pick low priced favs in tennis and thus not suitable for the users of this forum. Pity though as they do produce a profit.

I buy in my NFL tips and get the situations from a book written by one of the top USA tipsters. I have had 4 straight seasons of profits following him. It would be unethical to give his tips here but I would like to contribute to the forum. I bet on totals and the point spread and the following comments refer to point spread betting.

Remember that NFL with its salary cap is a "contrarion" sport to bet on. That is if Detroit beat Green Bay by 7 this week and ST Louis beat SF by 7, the worse thing you can do is assume if Detroit were meeting SF in the following week that Detroit would be a great bet on the spread. NFL doesn't seem to work that way. The teams are pretty even with some exceptions as noted by other forum contributors. Also, a study was done which indicates that 80% of all NFL games are decided by turnovers. The same study also indicated that it is almost impossible to predict turnovers.

It is my opinion as others that "defense" is the key component of finding the Super Bowl winner. Big offenses such as KC and Phily look good, but they seldom get their names on the trophy. I wait until the 4th or 5th round and look at the defensive stats and see if there is value in the best defensive sides.

For week1 I like
DETROIT -3 bt Green Bay
Baltimore +3 bt Phil Eagles

My teams are Green Bay and Buffalo and also like to see Oakland and the 49'ers do well.

Good punting for the season

Karla

G'Day Saratoga,

Sorry to put your 49ers down but i rate them as the 2nd worst team in the comp. Dont worry I follow Tampa Bay who are not much better. Being an Aussie it is hard to keep up with all the ins and outs of the NFL but i like this game better then Australian sports. All my comments are just based on an opinion and im sure you know more about it than i do but my ratings do have some meaning and are based on a statistical model. I do a lot of betting on NFL but more long term on the superbowl winner than individual matches. Agree with you Andrew about Carolina -7 in their first game against New Orleans. The panthers are keen to get off to a good start this year and they are my pick for the superbowl.

Cheers
ATC

Sorry

Correction to my picks
Baltimore -3 to beat Indy

Ass-u-me, (just kidding!) Hey, your opinion on the NFL is just as valid as mine. That's what's great about gambling. Bet if ya feel so strong, is what I always say. I'm glad to see so many Aussies playing the NFL. It is the most wagered on sport in the US by far. It's funny to hear people say, you bet hockey? or you bet baseball? What's the difference!!!! I try to find the best values and easiest spots. Historically, the NFL is very hard to win at long term but it seems like alot of Aussies bet the money line, is this true? This may be the better play long term as teams that cover usually win outright anyway. I was kidding about the Niners. I bust on em now too, but if it weren't for that TO breaking the team apart we might be alright there. He said Quarter Back Jeff Garcia(now with Detroit) likes men. When in fact, it's pretty widely ASS-U-MED that TO likes the guys. Alot of people in Philly don't know that, but being a Niners fan it was OUT there along time ago.I started thinking about the league this year and believe the Oakland Raiders have a legitimate shot of getting there this year. They got WR Randy Moss in the off season and he'll be able to do any kind of antics he wants on that team as long as they JUST WIN BABY! (that was there slogan in the 70's). They were getting a little old and started to young up. They also have Kerry Collins who has been to the big game and has veteran capabilities although he is by no means a super star. Plus he likes beer! Come to think of it, NFL QB's seem to have alot of substance abuse probs. Must be the pressure. Brett Favre (gotta love him now that the Niners suck) had the painkiller thing and former 1st pick overall Todd Marinovich(QB) somehow managed to get kicked off the bad boy Oakland Raiders for smokin' pot. How's ganja man Randy Moss gonna make it then? Oh yeah Ricky Williams is back in the league after taking last year off to live in a tent (IN AUSTRALIA I THINK!!!!) and smoke up and read a bunch of books. He said he'd rather do that than play football.