A friend of mine uses this method to back favourites, I am a little sceptical, but like to know what everyone else thinks.

Based on this theory.

1. Favourites win only about 30% of the time.

2. Many "false" favourites are in lower class races, higher class horses which are favourites have a better strike rate than 30%
(my belief is that the strike rate should remain the same).

What he does is look at the highest class race in each state each day. Then he backs the favourite in each race to win a certain target. He says this way, he is eliminating a long run of outs by basically only backing four or five horses each day out of a possible say 16 -24 favourites.

He does seem to win quite often.

Any thoughts?